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CX2SA > SWPC 24.05.15 23:23l 61 Lines 2193 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21339_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150524/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:21339 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:21339_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 May,
26 May, 27 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 359 km/s at
24/2032Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/1249Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/1942Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 183 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 May, 26 May, 27
May).
III. Event probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 099
Predicted 25 May-27 May 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 24 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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