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CX2SA > SWPC 26.05.15 23:23l 60 Lines 2171 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21424_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150526/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:21424 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:21424_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 May,
28 May, 29 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 368 km/s at
26/1731Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 26/1617Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/1613Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 May), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (28 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 May).
III. Event probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 095
Predicted 27 May-29 May 090/090/095
90 Day Mean 26 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 006/005-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/25
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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