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CX2SA > SWPC 27.05.15 23:21l 61 Lines 2276 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21456_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IW7BFZ<I3XTY<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 150527/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:21456 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:21456_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (28 May, 29 May)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (30 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached averaged
velocities less than 350 km/s. Total IMF reached a peak of 7 nT. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/1102Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (28 May, 30
May) and quiet to active levels on day two (29 May).
III. Event probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M 01/05/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 May 095
Predicted 28 May-30 May 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 27 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 007/008-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/30/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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