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CX2SA > SWPC 11.06.15 23:22l 64 Lines 2380 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22049_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150611/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:22049 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:22049_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jun 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0855Z from Region 2367 (S19E70). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun,
14 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
674 km/s at 11/2308Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/0219Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/1420Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6029 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (14 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 140
Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 11 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 015/020-011/015-012/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/40
Minor Storm 25/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/45/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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