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CX2SA > SWPC 15.06.15 23:23l 64 Lines 2406 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22192_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150615/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:22192 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:22192_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/1032Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (16 Jun) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (17 Jun,
18 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
633 km/s at 15/0126Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1700Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3307 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (18
Jun).
III. Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M 30/20/15
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 135
Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 130/125/120
90 Day Mean 15 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 019/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 014/018-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/10
Minor Storm 25/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 60/25/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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