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CX2SA > SWPC 18.06.15 23:23l 66 Lines 2544 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22363_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150618/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:22363 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:22363_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
18/1736Z from Region 2371 (N12E39). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
605 km/s at 18/0301Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/0912Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/1136Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at
18/1445Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1198 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21
Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and two (19
Jun, 20 Jun) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (21 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M 70/70/60
Class X 15/15/10
Proton 80/80/60
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 151
Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 145/147/148
90 Day Mean 18 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 006/006-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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