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CX2SA > SWPC 29.06.15 23:23l 65 Lines 2423 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22847_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150629/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:22847 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:22847_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jun 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
29/1807Z from Region 2373 (N15E55). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 464 km/s at
29/1052Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/0730Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/0622Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 29/0240Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 7557 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (30 Jun, 02 Jul) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (01 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 097
Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 29 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 005/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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