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CX2SA > SWPC 30.06.15 23:22l 63 Lines 2328 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22885_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150630/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:22885 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:22885_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jun 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/1243Z from Region 2376 (N13E57). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at
30/0645Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/0337Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0414Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9667 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 101
Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 105/110/115
90 Day Mean 30 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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