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CX2SA > SWPC 02.07.15 23:23l 64 Lines 2358 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23193_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150702/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:23193 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:23193_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/1530Z from Region 2376 (N13E32). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at
02/0032Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 02/0030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5446 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (04 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (05
Jul).
III. Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 114
Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 02 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 006/005-008/008-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/35
Minor Storm 01/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/30/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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