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CX2SA > SWPC 16.07.15 23:22l 62 Lines 2295 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24357_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150716/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:24357 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:24357_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
621 km/s at 15/2206Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2116Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/2214Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4277 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul,
18 Jul, 19 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 100
Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 16 Jul 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 006/008-006/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/35
Major-severe storm 20/20/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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