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CX2SA > SWPC 17.07.15 23:23l 61 Lines 2281 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24420_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150717/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:24420 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:24420_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 542 km/s at
17/0254Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/0306Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7462 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Jul, 20
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (19 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 097
Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 17 Jul 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 015/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 006/008-008/010-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 20/35/35
Major-severe storm 20/35/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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