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CX2SA > SWPC 18.07.15 23:22l 62 Lines 2263 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24469_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 150718/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:24469 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:24469_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/1442Z from Region 2388 (N14W81). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at
17/2104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5016 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Jul, 20 Jul) and
quiet levels on day three (21 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 096
Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 18 Jul 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 007/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 008/010-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 35/35/20
Major-severe storm 35/35/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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