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CX2SA > SWPC 23.07.15 23:23l 61 Lines 2245 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24643_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150723/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:24643 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:24643_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (24 Jul, 25
Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on
day three (26 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 559 km/s at 23/1707Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 23/0314Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 23/0442Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Jul, 25 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 089
Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 090/095/100
90 Day Mean 23 Jul 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 018/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 014/015-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/25/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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