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CX2SA > SWPC 24.07.15 23:23l 63 Lines 2365 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24678_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150724/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:24678 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:24678_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
24/1755Z from Region 2389 (S11E62). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jul,
26 Jul, 27 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
539 km/s at 24/0354Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/2226Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/2215Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 188 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (26 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M 01/01/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 092
Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 095/100/105
90 Day Mean 24 Jul 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 021/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 011/012-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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