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CX2SA > SWPC 29.07.15 23:22l 62 Lines 2280 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24869_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150729/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:24869 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:24869_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jul,
31 Jul, 01 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 462 km/s at
28/2203Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/2130Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/0130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 522 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (31 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (01 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 101
Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 105/107/110
90 Day Mean 29 Jul 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 007/008-014/018-020/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/40/40
Minor Storm 05/25/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/60/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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