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CX2SA > SWPC 04.08.15 23:22l 61 Lines 2263 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25109_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150804/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:25109 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:25109_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Aug,
06 Aug, 07 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 492 km/s at
04/0739Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/1608Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/1958Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1662 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (06 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (07 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 107
Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 04 Aug 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 006/006-011/012-017/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/50
Minor Storm 05/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 15/40/70
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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