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CX2SA > SWPC 06.08.15 23:24l 63 Lines 2345 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25186_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150806/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:25186 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:25186_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
06/1921Z from Region 2396 (S17E15). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug,
09 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
654 km/s at 06/1415Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 06/0942Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 06/0505Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 638 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and three (07 Aug,
09 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day two (08 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 122
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 016/023-012/015-017/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/35/35
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 05/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/10
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 70/50/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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