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CX2SA > SWPC 11.08.15 23:23l 63 Lines 2296 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25370_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150811/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:25370 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:25370_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/1515Z from Region 2396 (S18W51). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug,
14 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
492 km/s at 11/0851Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/0053Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/0850Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4102 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14
Aug).
III. Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 103
Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 105/100/095
90 Day Mean 11 Aug 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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