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CX2SA > SWPC 13.08.15 23:23l 62 Lines 2310 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25427_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150813/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:25427 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:25427_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (14 Aug) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (15
Aug, 16 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
435 km/s at 12/2132Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1020Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 749 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Aug, 15 Aug) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (16 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M 10/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 095
Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 13 Aug 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 006/005-006/005-018/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/35
Minor Storm 01/01/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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