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CX2SA > SWPC 17.08.15 23:24l 63 Lines 2286 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25531_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150817/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:25531 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:25531_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Aug,
19 Aug, 20 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 622 km/s at 17/0050Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/0809Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/0817Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8750
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (18 Aug), unsettled
to active levels on day two (19 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (20
Aug).
III. Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 087
Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 17 Aug 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 027/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 023/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 021/025-015/018-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/10
Minor Storm 25/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 60/45/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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