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CX2SA > SWPC 19.08.15 23:22l 61 Lines 2280 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25614_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150819/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:25614 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:25614_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on day
one (20 Aug) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days two and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
533 km/s at 19/2052Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 19/1325Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/1138Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15877 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M 05/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 098
Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 19 Aug 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 016/022-010/018-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 45/25/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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