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CX2SA > SWPC 22.08.15 23:23l 65 Lines 2460 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25704_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150822/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:25704 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:25704_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
22/1323Z from Region 2403 (S14E09). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
499 km/s at 21/2207Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/1130Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1217Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6539 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (23 Aug, 24
Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Aug). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (25
Aug).
III. Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/05/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 117
Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 22 Aug 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 021/028-020/028-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/45/35
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 70/70/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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