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CX2SA > SWPC 23.08.15 23:22l 66 Lines 2479 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25938_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150823/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:25938 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:25938_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Aug 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
22/2124Z from Region 2403 (S15W04). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 611 km/s at 23/1403Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 23/0740Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 23/0731Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 207
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Aug) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (25 Aug, 26 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 133
Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 120/120/125
90 Day Mean 23 Aug 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 025/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 020/028-014/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/35/30
Minor Storm 25/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 70/50/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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