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CX2SA > SWPC 02.09.15 23:23l 61 Lines 2259 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26549_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150902/2220Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:26549 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:26549_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
429 km/s at 02/1710Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02/0159Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/0013Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2791 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 088
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 085/085/090
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 011/012-008/009-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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