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CX2SA > SWPC 08.09.15 23:21l 62 Lines 2261 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27166_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 150908/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:27166 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:27166_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Sep 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 594 km/s at 07/2151Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 08/1121Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/0038Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 800
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (09 Sep, 11 Sep)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M 01/01/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 084
Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 085/085/090
90 Day Mean 08 Sep 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 027/045
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 018/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 011/012-006/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/25/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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