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CX2SA > SWPC 11.09.15 23:22l 63 Lines 2342 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27383_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150911/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:27383 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:27383_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a
peak speed of 674 km/s at 11/1132Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 11/0731Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 11/0731Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 1274 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (12 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (13 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (14 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 093
Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 11 Sep 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 036/061
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 028/040-019/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/30
Minor Storm 30/20/10
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 70/50/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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