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CX2SA > SWPC 12.09.15 23:22l 63 Lines 2394 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27420_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150912/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:27420 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:27420_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/2137Z from Region 2414 (S10W20). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
658 km/s at 12/0023Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2113Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/2134Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10410 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and three (13 Sep,
15 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day two (14 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 099
Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 12 Sep 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 036/053
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 023/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 019/025-012/015-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor Storm 20/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/40/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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