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CX2SA > SWPC 14.09.15 23:21l 63 Lines 2283 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27563_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JE7YGF<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 150914/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:27563 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:27563_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Sep,
16 Sep, 17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 545 km/s at 14/1354Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/0855Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/0900Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7601
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Sep), unsettled
to active levels on day two (16 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (17
Sep).
III. Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 097
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 015/020-015/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 20/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 55/45/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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