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CX2SA > SWPC 15.09.15 23:23l 64 Lines 2350 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27648_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150915/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:27648 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:27648_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/0519Z from Region 2415 (S22E14). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Sep,
17 Sep, 18 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 567 km/s at 15/1324Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/0427Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/0738Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6437
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 101
Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 15 Sep 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 010/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 009/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/25/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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