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CX2SA > SWPC 30.09.15 23:23l 64 Lines 2374 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28599_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150930/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:28599 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:28599_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
30/1059Z from Region 2422 (S18W55). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02
Oct, 03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at
30/0624Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 104 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels
on day three (03 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 131
Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 130/130/120
90 Day Mean 30 Sep 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 007/008-015/018-015/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 05/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/40/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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