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CX2SA > SWPC 03.10.15 23:22l 65 Lines 2502 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 28780_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151003/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:28780 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:28780_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
03/0633Z from Region 2422 (S20W89). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (04 Oct) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
461 km/s at 03/0500Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/0631Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/1314Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (04 Oct), unsettled
to active levels on day two (05 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (06 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (04 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 10/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 097
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 090/095/095
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 025/033-015/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/20
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 65/35/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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