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CX2SA > SWPC 10.10.15 23:24l 62 Lines 2328 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 29219_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IK2XDE<DB0RES<WA7V<CX2SA
Sent: 151010/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:29219 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:29219_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (11 Oct) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
735 km/s at 10/0525Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0633Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0624Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 46271 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (11 Oct, 13 Oct)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (12 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 01/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 081
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 080/085/090
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 015/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 010/012-013/020-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/30
Minor Storm 10/25/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/35
Major-severe storm 35/60/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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