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CX2SA > SWPC 11.10.15 23:22l 63 Lines 2359 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 29264_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151011/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:29264 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:29264_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (12 Oct) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
595 km/s at 10/2316Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/1932Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/1804Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 60051 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (14 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 01/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 085
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 085/090/090
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 013/020-013/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/35
Minor Storm 25/10/20
Major-severe storm 05/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 25/35/30
Major-severe storm 60/40/55
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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