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CX2SA > SWPC 13.10.15 23:22l 63 Lines 2313 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 29374_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151013/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:29374 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:29374_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
13/1411Z from Region 2434 (S08E74). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct,
16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
617 km/s at 13/0531Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/0018Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1512Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10091 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (14
Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M 30/30/40
Class X 01/01/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 096
Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 105/110/115
90 Day Mean 13 Oct 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 016/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 018/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 021/030-021/030-021/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 65/65/65
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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