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CX2SA > SWPC 20.10.15 23:23l 63 Lines 2359 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 29857_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151020/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:29857 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:29857_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/0404Z from Region 2437 (S20E46). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct,
23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
406 km/s at 20/0316Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1347Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/1524Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1254 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (22 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (23 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 123
Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 125/120/120
90 Day Mean 20 Oct 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 009/012-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 30/25/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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