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CX2SA > SWPC 21.10.15 23:23l 63 Lines 2329 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 29896_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151021/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:29896 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:29896_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
21/1756Z from Region 2436 (N08E16). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct,
24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
491 km/s at 21/1715Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 21/0937Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/1133Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 658 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 129
Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 21 Oct 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 007/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 25/15/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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