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CX2SA > SWPC 27.10.15 23:22l 63 Lines 2380 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 30345_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151027/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:30345 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:30345_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
27/1429Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (28 Oct) and expected to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three
(29 Oct, 30 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 480 km/s at
27/1429Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/0039Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 27/2059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 110
Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 27 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 007/008-010/012-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/30/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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