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CX2SA > SWPC 28.10.15 23:23l 63 Lines 2301 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 30407_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 151028/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:30407 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:30407_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Oct 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/0937Z from Region 2436 (N08W74). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 377 km/s at
28/0123Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/0625Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 297 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30
Oct, 31 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 112
Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 115/110/105
90 Day Mean 28 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 010/012-009/012-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/35
Major-severe storm 30/35/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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