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KF5JRV > TECH 25.08.16 12:34l 47 Lines 2618 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 812_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: Turing Test
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N0KFQ<KF5JRV
Sent: 160825/1124Z 812@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK1.4.65
Alan Turing's Contributions to Artificial Intelligence July 1948 – 1950
In July and August 1948 Alan Turing wrote a report for the National Physical
Laboratory entitled Intelligent Machinery. In the report he stated that a
thinking machine should be given the blank mind of an infant instead of an
adult mind filled with opinions and ideas. The report contained an early
discussion of neural networks. Turing estimated that it would take a battery
of programmers fifty years to bring this learning machine from childhood to
adult mental maturity. The report was not published until 1968.
In September 1948 Turing joined the computer project at Manchester University
as Deputy Director and chief programmer.
In 1950 Turing published Computing Machinery and Intelligence, in which he
described the “Turing Test" for determining whether a machine is “intelligent.ö
"Turing predicted that machines would eventually be able to pass the test; in
fact, he estimated that by the year 2000, machines with around 100 MB of
storage would be able to fool 30% of human judges in a five-minute test, and
that people would no longer consider the phrase "thinking machine"
contradictory. (In practice, from 2009-2012, the Loebner Prize chatterbot
contestants only managed to fool a judge once, and that was only due to the
human contestant pretending to be a chatbot.) He further predicted that
machine learning would be an important part of building powerful machines, a
claim considered plausible by contemporary researchers in artificial
intelligence.
"In a 2008 paper submitted to 19th Midwest Artificial Intelligence and
Cognitive Science Conference, Dr. Shane T. Mueller predicted a modified Turing
Test called a "Cognitive Decathlon" could be accomplished within 5 years.
"By extrapolating an exponential growth of technology over several decades,
futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted that Turing test-capable computers would be
manufactured in the near future. In 1990, he set the year around 2020. By
2005, he had revised his estimate to 2029.
"The Long Bet Project Bet Nr. 1 is a wager of $20,000 between Mitch Kapor
(pessimist) and Ray Kurzweil (optimist) about whether a computer will pass a
lengthy Turing Test by the year 2029. During the Long Now Turing Test, each of
three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four
Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human
Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews. The bet
specifies the conditions in some detail".
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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