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KF5JRV > WX 03.04.17 13:26l 76 Lines 4079 Bytes #999 (0) @ USA
BID : 13426_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS USA WX Forecast 4/3
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170403/1215Z 13426@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.13
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Mon Apr 03 2017
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 03 2017 - 12Z Wed Apr 05 2017
...Threats of severe weather and flash flooding will impact areas across
the Southern Mississippi Valley and the Southeast today...
...Expect snow to occur through the Rockies and portions of the Great
Basin and Northern Plains over the next couple of days...
Severe weather and flash flooding will be of concern across the Lower
Mississippi Valley and towards the Southeastern U.S. today. The close
proximity of a surface low pressure system and associated cold frontal
boundary to the Gulf Coast will allow for an abundant amount of warm,
moist, and unstable air to pull into the Lower Mississippi Valley Region
and points just eastward. This will lead to widespread heavy rain as well
as strong to potentially dangerous convective development. The Storm
Prediction Center has a large part of southern and central Louisiana,
central and southern Mississippi, and far west-central Alabama outlined in
an Enhanced Risk area today for severe storm development (please check
www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov for more information). In addition, a slight risk
of severe weather exists in surrounding areas. Flash flooding is already
ongoing across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, especially near
the Gulf Coast, and is expected to continue throughout the day while
slowly moving eastward. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined
portions of the eastern Gulf Coast (including far southeast Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western panhandle of Florida) in a Slight Risk
for flash flooding throughout the day and into the overnight. A Slight
Risk of flash flooding also exists for portions of the Southern
Appalachians, where widespread rains will interact with terrain to create
potential problems.
The cold front will pick up some speed but weaken a bit as the surface low
starts to lift northeastward. It will traverse eastward across much of the
Southeast this evening and overnight, before reaching the Atlantic Coast
by early Tuesday afternoon. The surface low will be a bit slower to exit,
remaining across the Northeast through Wednesday before finally shifting
off the coast. Continued rain and thunderstorms will proceed the passage
of the cold front, spreading northward and westward around the area of low
pressure, impacting much of the eastern U.S. today through Tuesday.
Strongest storms are expected to remain near and along the Gulf Coast.
Once the cold front is east of the Appalachians by Tuesday morning, the
severe weather and flash flooding will no longer be threats. Much of the
Northeast will once again find themselves in the cold sector of the
system, with precipitation falling as a mixture of rain, snow, and ice
beginning early Tuesday morning and continuing through Wednesday. Winter
Storm Watches have been posted for portions of southern Maine and eastern
Delaware as a result.
Another cold front will continue dropping southeast from the Intermountain
West today, traversing portions of the Southwest and Southern Rockies, and
shifting into the western extent of the Southern Plains by tonight. Along
this frontal passage, showers and thunderstorms can be expected today,
with some lingering rain and higher elevation snow expected behind. By
tonight, all precipitation should change to snow, impacting portions of
the Rockies, Northern Plains, and Central Great Basins through Tuesday,
before tapering off Tuesday night. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories are currently in effect for the highest elevations in
the Central Rockies, where snowfall in excess of a foot is possible. The
cold front will continue on a eastward track from Tuesday into Wednesday,
once again bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the Southern and Central Plains, eastward into the Mississippi
River Valley and along much of the Gulf Coast.
Wix
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
73 Scott KF5JRV
KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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