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KF5JRV > WX 04.04.17 12:27l 87 Lines 4701 Bytes #999 (0) @ USA
BID : 13470_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS USA WX Forecast 4/4
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170404/1116Z 13470@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.13
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
404 AM EDT Tue Apr 04 2017
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 04 2017 - 12Z Thu Apr 06 2017
...Threats of severe weather and flash flooding will impact portions of
the Central and Southern Plains, and along the central Gulf Coast today
and tonight...
...Expect snow to occur through the Rockies and portions of the Western
Plains today, tapering off throughout the day and into the overnight...
...Snow, possibly mixed with rain and ice, will impact the far Northeast
over the next several days...
There are two main systems which will impact the weather across much of
the continental U.S. over the next few days. The first is an area of low
pressure that will progress across the Great Lakes today, reaching the
Northeast by tonight, then shifting eastward off the Atlantic Coast by
Wednesday. This will drag a cold front eastward along much of the Atlantic
Seaboard today, but will also curve to the southwest and become a warm
front along the Gulf Coast. The second system of concern will be located
in the Southwest this morning, moving across the Southern Plains today as
it continues to deepen. An associated cold front will traverse the
Southern Plains today, the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley overnight, and
then across much of the eastern U.S. Wednesday into Wednesday night as the
surface low shifts northeast.
Concerning the first system... The associated cold front will quickly
shift eastward off the central-Atlantic Seaboard today, with no weather
concerns expected for much of the central Atlantic coastline after this
morning. Meanwhile, farther north, closer to the low pressure center, flow
off of the Atlantic Coast will be alive and well, pulling moisture well
into the Great Lakes Region. Rain, heavy at times, and chances for
thunderstorms can be expected from the Great Lakes, northern Mid Atlantic,
and the Northeast throughout today. Given colder temperatures across the
far Northeast, precipitation will change to a mixture of rain, ice, and
snow. This wintry precipitation will linger over the next few days. Flood
watches are in effect for portions of the Northeast, including much of New
York. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm warnings are also in
effect farther north, mainly across portions of Maine. Meanwhile, the warm
front along the Gulf Coast, associated with the same system, will allow
for shower and thunderstorm chances along the Gulf Coast throughout the
day today.
Attention then turns to the second system traversing the southern Plains.
Moisture located on the backside of the center of low pressure will result
in continued snow for much of the Rockies and into the western Plains
through the first part of today. As the low shifts to the east today, snow
will taper off, though may linger across the highest terrain in the
central Rockies into the overnight. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter
Storm warnings are in effect for much of Colorado and southward into
Northern Arizona. Meanwhile, just to the east, the pull of warm moist air
off of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the low pressure system, will allow for
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central and southern
Plains. These showers and thunderstorms will intensify throughout the
afternoon/evening, and even into the overnight, as the system gains
strength and begins to interact with the warm unstable airmass in place
across the East-Central U.S. Showers and thunderstorms will move into the
Mississippi Valley Region overnight, and then fill in across much of the
eastern U.S. Wednesday into Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has
placed an Enhanced Risk for severe weather across portions of Northeast
Oklahoma, Southeastern Kansas, and far southwestern Missouri for the
strong storm potential this afternoon, with a Slight Risk in place from
western Oklahoma northeastward into Central Missouri. Another Enhanced
Risk of severe weather exists for portions of Southeastern Mississippi and
Southwestern Alabama for late tonight/early Wednesday morning as the cold
front continues eastward. A Slight Risk also in place across portions of
the Gulf States for this time as well. Please refer to the Storm
Prediction Website for more information concerning severe storm potential
(www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov). The Weather Prediction Center has also outlined
portions of eastern Kansas in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall
(exceeding flash flood guidance) for today, with a Marginal Risk
stretching from southwestern Kansas, across much of Missouri, and into
west-central Illinois.
Wix
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
73 Scott KF5JRV
KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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