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KF5JRV > WX 05.05.17 12:45l 83 Lines 3284 Bytes #999 (0) @ USA
BID : 15175_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS USA WX Forecast 5/5
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<LU4ECL<I0OJJ<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170505/1122Z 15175@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.13
000
FXUS64 KLZK 050843
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
343 AM CDT Fri May 5 2017
.Short Term...Today through Saturday night
Much quieter conditions than we have seen of late are expected
through the period giving the area a chance to dry out although long
term river concerns remain. With no appreciable differences in the
models noted, a blend of forecast solutions will be used.
Moisture channel imagery shows the strong cut off upper low is now
located over the middle Tennessee valley. System is moving ever so
slowly to the east as its running into strong high pressure sitting
off the eastern seaboard. Pattern overall remains highly amplified
and blocky in nature with a sprawling upper level ridge over the
Rockies and another upper trough just off the west coast.
Moisture continues to wrap around the departing upper low with light
rain still ongoing over eastern Arkansas. Latest radar imagery shows
our far eastern counties could still see a shower and a pre first
period will be included.
Breezy northwest winds will develop once again today but will stay
below lake wind advisory criteria. Northwest flow aloft will keep
temperatures below normal but mainly clear skies are expected except
lingering clouds over the east today. Temperatures will rebound some
on Saturday.
Upper ridge will slowly advance towards the area through the period
but overall blocky pattern means it will be a slow process. In the
interim, a back door cold front will move through the area Saturday
night but no precipitation is expected.
&&
.Long Term...Sunday through Thursday
Models continue to show a highly amplified upper level pattern over
the continental United States to start the period, with upper
ridging over the nation`s mid section and troughing on either
coast. By Monday, both of these troughs form cutoff lows, with the
western trough cutting off across the southwestern US and the
eastern trough over the Great Lakes or New England region.
While details differ, the general trend is for the southwestern cutoff
low to creep slowly eastward through the midweek time frame.
Ridging ahead of this feature should keep most all of Arkansas dry
and warm, with temperatures expected to rise to above normal
levels before rain chances return to the forecast late in the
period. As mentioned, the details in how the upper pattern evolves
do differ, but western and northern parts of the state will be
favored areas for rain chances by Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 70 50 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 75 47 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 68 47 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 74 48 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 71 50 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 72 50 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 73 45 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 69 47 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
Newport AR 70 49 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 71 49 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 74 48 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 70 48 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 71 51 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...56 / Long Term...64
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