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HP2DFA > STORM 06.09.90 09:37l 25 Lines 2517 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1358_HP2DFA
Subj: 7 DAY PACIFIC OUTLOOK C. AMERICA SEP02
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<GB7CIP<GB7BED<EI2GYB<PY2BIL<HP2DFA
Sent: 260901/2359Z 1358@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
No active tropical cyclones or named hurricanes pose a direct threat to mainland Central America over the next 7 days. High-pressure ridges and unfavorable atmospheric wind shear over the Caribbean Sea continue to suppress significant cyclonic organization, steering active global storm development far away from the region.
The latest long-range guidance from the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)] and regional meteorological institutes highlights the following tracking setups:
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## 🌊 Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook
While the Eastern Pacific basin is entering an active convective development cycle, steering currents will pull all developing low-pressure systems entirely away from land:
* Offshore Area of Interest (South of Mexico): An area of low pressure is forecast to form late this week several hundred miles south-southwest of southwestern Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for gradual development, giving it a medium 50hance of tropical depression formation by early next week. Current tracking models show this system steering west-northwestward over open ocean, leaving Central American coastal waters completely clear.
* Active Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ): Deep tropical moisture lines parallel to northern Central America are keeping the marine environment highly active, but no closed cyclonic circulations are forecast to develop close to the shore.
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## ܠ️ Critical Non-Cyclonic Regional Hazards
The absence of a named hurricane landfall does not mean quiet weather. Central America continues to experience intense localized conditions driven by severe seasonal dynamics:
* Onda Tropical N.º 42 & Monsoon Rain: The arrival of Tropical Wave No. 42 will actively interact with the ITCZ, fueling widespread afternoon severe thunderstorms, blinding downpours, and intense lightning across the Pacific slopes of Panama and Costa Rica.
* Severe Landslide and Mudslide Risk: Ground conditions across the region remain critically saturated, with soil water retention hovering near 70aturation. Local civil protection authorities warn that typical, non-cyclonic afternoon downpours this week will easily trigger sudden flash floods, rapid river rises, and dangerous mudslides along mountainous corridors.
Sistema de Monitoreo de Alertas Meteorologicas de Panama
PCARA - Grupo Digital C4FM Panama
www.pcara.net - www.c4fmpanama.org
HP2DFA@HP2DFA.COL.PA.CEAM
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