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HP2DFA > STORM 06.09.90 09:37l 34 Lines 2885 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1543_HP2DFA
Subj: 7 DAY PACIFIC OUTLOOK C. AMERICA SEP05
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<DB0APK<DK0WUE<ZL2BAU<VK3AT<VA2RIZ<HP2DFA
Sent: 260905/0229Z 1543@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
The 7-day Pacific tropical outlook for Central America features an active open ocean with multiple major hurricanes tracking away from the mainland, juxtaposed against a very wet, high-rainfall pattern targeting the continental coastline. [1, 2]
Data verified through the [NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC)] outlines the following system footprints and regional weather hazards over the next 7 days:
## 🌀 Active Systems (Tracking Westward Out to Sea)
The Eastern Pacific is currently experiencing intense cyclonic activity with multiple systems spinning simultaneously, though none pose a direct landfall threat to Central America: [2, 3]
*
* [Hurricane Marie]: Centered several hundred miles west-southwest of Baja California, Mexico, moving west-northwestward at roughly 8 mph. It is gradually weakening due to surrounding dry atmospheric layers and will continue moving deep into the open ocean. [4, 5]
* Hurricanes Karina & Lowell: Located much farther west, several hundred miles east and south-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, respectively. They remain strictly open-ocean hazards with no continental impact. [6]
*
## 🌊 Area of Interest (Offshore Southwestern Mexico)
*
* The System: The [National Hurricane Center] is monitoring a broad area of low pressure expected to organize well offshore of southwestern Mexico by early next week. [5]
* 7-Day Formation Probability: Medium (50 [5]
* Impact: A tropical depression could form around the middle of next week while tracking west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Because it will stay well offshore of Mexico, it will not make direct landfall, but its broad circulation will act as a moisture pump across the region. [5]
*
## 🌧️ Regional 7-Day Weather Hazards
Because these broad low-pressure areas and offshore systems create a strong moisture pull from the equatorial Pacific, a very wet 8-day rain pattern is locked in across the Pacific slopes of Central America: [1]
*
* The Hotspots: The highest rainfall signals target the Pacific coastal regions of Panama (Chiriquí), Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala.
* Inland Risks: The National Weather Service warns that repeated heavy afternoon and evening downpours over highly saturated soils will elevate the risks of flash flooding and landslides, particularly throughout the mountainous cordilleras and volcanic chains.
* Marine Baseline: Marine conditions within 250 nautical miles of the Central American coast are currently being driven by a moderate pressure gradient, sustaining fresh easterly gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo into early next week. [1, 7, 8]
*
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Sistema de Monitoreo de Alertas Meteorologicas de Panama
PCARA - Grupo Digital C4FM Panama
www.pcara.net - www.c4fmpanama.org
PMAIL HP2DFA@HP2DFA.COL.PA.CEAM
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