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KF5JRV > WX 14.07.17 04:43l 124 Lines 5196 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 19364_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern North Pacific WX 7/13
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<LU1PAA<LU4ECL<PI8CDR<VE3TOK<VA3TOK<VE3UIL<N9PMO<NS2B<
KF5JRV
Sent: 170714/0249Z 19364@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132152
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jul 13 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Newly upgraded Hurricane Fernanda continues to rapidly
strengthen this afternoon and is centered near 11.2N 116.0W at
2100 UTC, or about 782 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja
California, moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with
gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within
90 nm across the NE and 45 nm across the SW semicircles.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 180
nm N and 240 nm S semicircles. Fernanda is forecast to continue
westward for the next few days, and gradually strengthen to a
major hurricane by Sat. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends along 93-94W to across Guatemala and the
Yucatan peninsula moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection
is described below. Recent scatterometer data depicted a broad
weak cyclonic circulation along the monsoon trough at about 10N
between 92W and 94W, with winds less than 15 kt.
A tropical wave is along 101-102W moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Associated convection is described below. Satellite imagery
suggests weak cyclonic turning in the middle levels of the
atmosphere associated with this wave.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N75W to 10N90W to 10N100W,
then resumes from 11N120W to 12N125W to 10N138W. The
intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 10N138W to
10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 03N to 09N E of 80W, from 07N to 10N between 82W and 86W,
from 04N to 10N between 87W and 92W, from 11N to 16N between 92W
and 98W, and also from 07N to 10N between 97W and 104W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail offshore of Baja California
this afternoon and will freshen modestly near the coast each
afternoon through evening due to daytime heating through Friday
night. The remnant circulation of Eugene continues to dissipate
and move away from the area, leaving light and variable winds
farther offshore, generally W of 117W. Swells generated by
Eugene will continue to affect the W coast of Baja California
and southern California during the next day or so causing
dangerous surf and strong rip current conditions. Seas continue
to subside gradually and are expected to maintain a range of 4
to 6 ft in S to SW swell tonight through early next week. Winds
are expected to become light and variable again by early next
week as broad troughing sets up across the offshore waters.
In the Gulf of California, mainly light and variable winds will
prevail, except occasionally pulsing to moderate out of the SE
in the northern Gulf each morning through noon. Seas will be 1
to 3 ft, except 3 to 4 ft near the entrance.
In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds will pulse to fresh
during the nighttime hours through Saturday morning, then will be
weaker each morning through Tuesday. Thereafter, winds will
resume a fresh pulse each morning the remainder of the week.
Elsewhere, mainly gentle variable winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
will prevail through the next several days.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate offshore nocturnal winds will
pulse to fresh through Saturday morning, then will be weaker
thereafter.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon
trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell and
seas 6 to 7 ft has begun to propagate through the waters W of
Colombia and Ecuador, with a reinforcing set of swell moving
across the area Friday night and reaching the Central America
coast by Saturday night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the special features section for information on
Hurricane Fernanda.
Post-tropical cyclone Eugene was analyzed near 25.5N125W as a
1011 mb low center. The center remains void of any deep
convection, but moderate shallow convection is found within 120
nm from center across the NW quadrant. The remnant circulation
will continue to move NW for the next couple of days before
dissipation. Associated winds and seas will diminish through
Friday.
Otherwise, mainly moderate trades will prevail N of the
convergence zone through the next several days, except
increasing to fresh in the N central waters with a tight pressure
gradient present offshore of central California Sunday night
through early Tuesday. Seas of 4 to 7 ft outside of any tropical
cyclone activity will prevail, except building to 8 to 9 ft in
the N central waters when the stronger winds occur.
$$
Stripling
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