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KF5JRV > WX 14.07.17 13:03l 127 Lines 5260 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 19386_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern North Pacific WX 7/14
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<LU4ECL<PI8CDR<VE3TOK<VA3TOK<VE3UIL<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170714/1131Z 19386@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
!RRR!000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140923 CCA
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
903 UTC Fri Jul 14 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Fernanda centered near 11.0N 117.9W at 0900 UTC, or
about 830 nm SSW of the southern tip of Baja California, moving W
at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm in the
northern semicircle, and within 150 nm in the southern semicircle.
Fernanda is forecast to continue westward for the next few days,
and gradually strengthen to a major hurricane by Sat. See latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 for
more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends along 94W/95W to across southeastern
Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving W at 15 kt. The wave
may be enhancing clusters o nocturnal convection within 60 nm of
the Mexican coast between 95W and 102W.
A tropical wave is along 104W moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 14N between
100w and 104W. Satellite imagery suggests weak cyclonic turning
in the middle levels of the atmosphere associated with this wave.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 11N110W, then
resumes from 11N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted north of 05N and east of 06N.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate northwest winds prevail offshore of Baja California
this evening and are expected to remain gentle to moderate into
the weekend. Winds will freshen modestly near the coast each
afternoon through evening due to daytime heating through tonight.
The remnant circulation of Eugene continues to dissipate and
move away from the area, leaving light and variable winds farther
offshore, generally W of 117W. Swells generated by Eugene will
continue to affect the W coast of Baja California and southern
California during the next day or so causing zones of dangerous
surf and strong rip current conditions. Seas continue to subside
gradually and are expected to maintain a range of 4 to 6 ft in
south to southwest swell mixed with a component of northerly
swell through early next week. Winds are expected to become light
and variable again by early next week as broad troughing sets up
across the offshore waters.
In the Gulf of California, mainly light and variable winds will
prevail, except occasionally pulsing to moderate out of the
southeast in the northern Gulf each morning through noon. Seas
will be 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 4 ft near the entrance.
In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, lower pressure south of the Gulf,
enhanced in part by a passing tropical wave, is creating a tight
enough gradient to support fresh to occasionally strong gap
winds into the Gulf this morning and tonight. The winds tonight
will veer more easterly along the Oaxaca coast, related to
elongated lower pressure along the monsoon trough farther south.
Weaker gap winds will pulse each night from Sat night through
early next week.
Elsewhere, mainly gentle variable winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft will prevail through the next several days.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate offshore nocturnal winds will
pulse to fresh through Saturday morning, then will be weaker
thereafter.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the
monsoon trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell
and seas 6 to 7 ft will continue to propagate through the waters
west of Colombia and Ecuador, with a reinforcing pulse of swell
moving across the area tonight and reaching the Central America
coast by Saturday night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the special features section for information on
Hurricane Fernanda.
Post-tropical cyclone Eugene was analyzed near 26N126W as a 1014
mb low center, drifting to the northwest and weakening with no
discernible convection. An earlier scatterometer pass along with
a concurrent altimeter satellite pass indicated winds of 20 to 25
kt and seas to 9 ft within 90 nm in the northern quadrant of the
low pressure, but winds and seas have likely diminished since
those passes yesterday. Winds and seas will continue to diminish
over the next 48 hours as the low pressure gradually dissipates.
Swell generated by Fernanda will propagate to within 300 nm of
the center by early next week, with an accompanying wind field of
20 to 30 kt mainly on the northern periphery of the hurricane as
it moves west of 140W by mid week. Elsewhere, outside of the
region within 300 nm of the path of Fernanda, winds will remain
generally light to moderate with 5 to 6 ft seas.
$$
Christensen
73 Scott KF5JRV
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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