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KF5JRV > WX 15.07.17 14:03l 111 Lines 4222 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 19449_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern North Pacific WX 7/15
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<LU4ECL<PI8CDR<VE3TOK<VA3TOK<VE3UIL<VE1MPF<N9PMO<NS2B<
KF5JRV
Sent: 170715/1122Z 19449@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
!RRR!000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150912
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
912 UTC Sat Jul 15 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Fernanda is centered near 10.8N 121.8W at 0900 UTC,
moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the
center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
occurring elsewhere within 180 nm across the east semicircle and
240 nm across the southwest quadrant. Fernanda remains a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional strengthening is possible today. A gradual turn
toward the west- northwest is expected later today, and this
motion should continue through Sunday with strong easterly swell
spreading out ahead of Fernanda. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends north of 07N along 97W/98W, moving west
at 15 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted
within 120 nm either side of the tropical wave axis.
A tropical wave from 05N to 14N along 109W-110W is moving W at
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N
between 106W and 110W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 12N108W. The
intertropical convergence zone reaches from 09N130W to beyond
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm
south of the monsoon trough axis between 85W and 90W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The subtropical ridge is building in the wake of the rapidly
weakening remnant low of Eugene now well west of the region. This
is allowing a tight enough pressure gradient to support moderate
northerly winds off the coast of Baja California peninsula,
pulsing to 20 kt over the next couple of nights. Seas across
these waters will remain 4 to 6 ft through early next week. Winds
are expected to become light and variable again by early next
week as broad troughing sets up across the offshore waters.
Mainly light and variable winds and 1-3 ft seas will prevail in
the Gulf of California, except 3 to 4 ft seas south of 23N.
Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds are filling in across the region behind a
passing tropical wave now just west of the Gulf. These winds
will veer more southeasterly this morning along the Oaxaca
coast. Weaker northerly gap winds will pulse each night
afterwards.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate offshore winds will pulse to
fresh each night through Saturday morning, then weaken
afterwards.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the
monsoon trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial southerly
swell and 6-7 ft seas will continue to propagate into the waters
west of Colombia and Ecuador, with a reinforcing pulse of swell
moving into the area tonight reaching the Central America coast
Saturday night and Sunday.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the special features section for information on
Hurricane Fernanda.
The post-tropical remnant low of Eugene near 29N129W is drifting
northwest and dissipating, with no discernible convection.
Fresh northeast winds on the north side of the low pressure will
diminish later today.
Swell generated by Fernanda will propagate away from the center
across tropical waters west of 120W the next several days. It is
expected to cross 140W and move into the Central Pacific by
early next week. Elsewhere outside of the region within 300 nm
of the path of Fernanda, winds will remain generally light to
moderate with 5 to 7 ft seas.
$$
Christensen
73 Scott KF5JRV
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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