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KF5JRV > WX 16.07.17 15:03l 135 Lines 5578 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 19522_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern North Pacific WX 7/16
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<LU4ECL<PI8CDR<VE3TOK<VA3TOK<VE3UIL<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170716/1335Z 19522@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
!RRR!000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160916
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
916 UTC Sun Jul 16 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Fernanda is centered near 12.1N 126.2W at 0900 UTC or
about 1130 nm SW of the southern tip of Baja California, moving
WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt.
Numerous strong convection is within 75 nm of the center with
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring
elsewhere within 180 nm of the center. Fernanda has weakened
slightly due to an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle, but is
forecast to strengthen again during the next 24 hours or so
before gradually weakening thereafter. Large swells will
spreading and expanding out ahead of Fernanda to the NW and W
during the next few days and are expected to reach the Hawaiian
Islands early Tue. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 for more details.
An elongated area of 1012 mb low pressure 200 nm S of Acapulco
Mexico is associated with a tropical wave moving W at 10 kt
across the area. A recent scatterometer pass indicated winds to
20 kt within 60 nm of the center in the northeast quadrant. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 120 nm of the center of
the low pressure. The low is forecast to move generally W-NW
during the next couple of days and has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 08N101W to the 1012 mb low pressure
near 13.5N101W to 17N101W. Please refer to the Special Features
section above for more details on the tropical wave and the
associated elongated low pressure developing along the wave.
A tropical wave is along 114W/115W from 07N to 14N moving W at
15 kt. Although active convection continues from 10N to 15N between
112W and 118W, the tropical wave is becoming less defined as it
interacts with the outer circulation of Hurricane Fernanda
located to the W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N83W TO 08N92W to 1012 mb
low pressure near 13.5N101W to 11N117W, then resumes from
10.5N130W to 07N140W. Aside from the areas of convection already
mentioned in the tropical waves section and that associated with
Hurricane Fernanda, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 60 nm of the coasts of Panama and
Costa Rica, and within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between
90W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is also observed
within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough axis between 135W and
140W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the special features for information on a broad area
of low pressure south of Acapulco.
A surface trough will develop through Monday from the coast of
southern California southward to off the coast of the Baja
California peninsula. This will block the advance of the
subtropical ridge into the region and maintain generally gentle
to moderate winds off the Baja California peninsula through late
week. Seas will still be 5 to 7 ft however in a mix of northerly
and longer period south to southwest swell.
Farther south, moderate to fresh easterly winds will sweep
across the Revillagigedo Islands on the north side of low
pressure passing to the west of the region early to mid week.
Gentle southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California,
except for moderate southerly flow over the northern Gulf.
Fresh gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
starting mid week related to high pressure north of the area and
lower pressure to the south related to passing tropical waves.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate offshore winds will pulse to
fresh each night with nocturnal drainage through Monday morning,
increasing fresh to strong thereafter.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the
monsoon trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial southerly
swell and 6 to 7 ft seas will continue to propagate into the
waters W of Colombia and Ecuador, with a reinforcing pulse of
swell moving into the area this morning, reaching the Central
America coast Saturday night and Sunday. Another pulse of large
southerly swell will move into the waters by Tue.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the special features section for information on
Hurricane Fernanda.
The post-tropical remnant low of Eugene has finally dissipated,
leaving a weak trough from 28N131W to 25N127W.
Swell generated by Fernanda will propagate away from the center
across tropical waters west of 120W the next several days. It is
expected to cross 140W and move into the Central Pacific by
through mid week. Northerly swell of 6 to 8 ft will propagate
into the waters north of 25N and west of 120W starting Monday,
mixing with southerly swell generated from Fernanda by Tuesday
with 7 to 9 ft combined seas. Elsewhere outside of the region
within 300 nm of the path of Fernanda, winds will remain
generally light to moderate with 5 to 7 ft seas.
$$
Christensen
73 Scott KF5JRV
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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