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KF5JRV > WX 19.07.17 02:44l 146 Lines 6162 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 19686_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern North Pacific WX 7/18
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HR1PAQ<LU4ECL<PI8CDR<VE3TOK<VA3TOK<VE3UIL<VE1MPF<N9PMO<
NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170719/0015Z 19686@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
!RRR!000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180913
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
912 UTC Tue Jul 18 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Fernanda is centered near 15.4N 132.8W at 0900 UTC or
about 1355 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California or about
1345 nm E of Hilo, Hawaii moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained winds remain 90 kt
with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
within 90 nm of the center, with scattered moderate to strong
convection elsewhere within 240 nm east semicircle and 150 nm
west semicircle. Fernanda is weakening, and no longer exhibits an
eye. The weakening trend will continue over the next several
days. Large swells will continue to expand and spread out ahead
of Fernanda to the NW and W during the next few days, and are
expected to reach the Hawaiian Islands early Wednesday. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 for more details.
Newly formed Tropical Storm Greg near 14.6N 107.6W at 0900 UTC
or about 330 nm SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico moving WNW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 45 nm in the northwest semicircle and 90 nm
in the southeast semicircle. While Greg is intensifying
currently, little further intensification is anticipated over
the next couple days, with gradual weakening expected by the end
of the weak. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 for more details.
An area of low pressure centered near 14N118W 1008 mb, or about
720 nm southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Weak northerly shear is ongoing, maintaining
scattered moderate to strong convection within 60 nm in the
northern semicircle and 180 nm in the southern semicircle. Fresh
to strong winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft can be found within 180 nm
in the southeast semicircle of the low. The low will continue to
move slowly to the west or west-southwest through midweek, and
may eventually interact with Tropical Storm Greg. The low has a
medium chance for tropical cyclone development during the next 48
hours.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends north of 10N along roughly 89W/90W
through western El Salvador and eastern Guatemala. A squall line
related to the tropical wave moved off the coast of Guatemala
and El Salvador a few hours ago, bringing strong thunderstorms,
gusty winds, and locally higher seas to the adjacent Pacific
waters out to 60 nm off the coast. This has largely diminished
since however, with a few thunderstorms lingering off the central
coast of Guatemala. The tropical wave is moving west at 15 kt.
Another tropical wave extends north of 10N along 99W/100W, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the monsoon trough near the tropical wave from 07N to 10N
between 95W and 100W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W TO 11N94W to 09N102W,
where it breaks from Tropical Storm Greg, then resumes from
114N112W to low pressure near 14N118W TO 13N125W, where it
breaks, then resumes to the southwest of Fernanda near 11N132W
to beyond 08N140W. Other than convection as already described,
scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 08N between 135W
and 140W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the special features for information on Tropical
Storm Greg southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
A surface trough from the coast of southern California southward
to off the coast of the Baja California peninsula near 24N120W
will continue to block the advance of the subtropical ridge into
the region and maintain generally gentle to moderate winds off
the Baja California peninsula through late week. Seas will still
remain 5 to 7 ft however, in a mix of northerly and longer period
south to southwest swell.
Farther south, moderate to fresh easterly winds will sweep
across the Revillagigedo Islands on the north side of Tropical
Storm Greg which is forecast to pass to the south of the region
through mid week.
Gentle southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California,
except for moderate southerly flow over the northern Gulf.
Light to gentle variable winds will prevail across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through midweek before fresh northerly gap winds
pulse to strong at night. These winds will likely further
increase to fresh to strong by the end of the week into next
weekend.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh offshore winds will
pulse to fresh each night with nocturnal drainage through the
week, occasionally building seas close to 8 ft.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the
monsoon trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell
and 6 to 7 ft seas will continue to propagate into the waters
reaching the coast of Central America through the day. Another
pulse of large southerly swell will move into the waters later
today and raise seas to 6-8 ft through Thu.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the special features section for information on
Hurricane Fernanda.
Weak ridging is producing moderate to fresh north to northeast
winds north of the 25N. The ridge will build modestly eastward
through mid week and tighten the pressure gradient to the north
of Fernanda as it moves west of 135W to produce fresh to strong
northeast winds across much of the area north of 25N, where seas
will build to 8 to 9 ft through midweek in a mix of northerly
swell, and southerly swell generated from Fernanda.
$$
Christensen
73 Scott KF5JRV
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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