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KF5JRV > WX 19.07.17 13:04l 127 Lines 5291 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 19743_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 7/19
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<LU4ECL<PI8CDR<VE3TOK<VA3TOK<VE3UIL<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170719/1136Z 19743@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
!RRR!000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191009
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1009 UTC Wed Jul 19 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Fernanda is centered near 17.0N 135.0W at 19/0900 UTC
moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90
nm of the center, and scattered moderate convection was noted
elsewhere from 13N to 20N between 130W and 136W. Fernanda will
continue to weaken to tropical storm strength through today,
then diminish further as it moves west of 140W through late week.
Large swell will continue to expand and spread out ahead of
Fernanda to the NW and W during the next few days. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 for
more details.
Tropical Storm Greg is centered near 14.3N 111.1W at 19/0900 UTC
or about 500 nm S of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
60 nm of the center. Some intensification is anticipated over
the next couple days, with gradual weakening expected by the end
of the week. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 for more details.
Tropical Depression Eight-E is centered near 14.6N 120.8W at
19/0900 UTC, or about 727 nm SW of the southern tip of Baja
California, moving WSW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts
to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120
nm of the center. Persistent northwesterly shear will inhibit
much strengthening and keep this system below tropical storm
intensity. The depression will move slowly west or west-southwest
today and tonight, and may interact with Tropical Storm Greg
later in the week. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extending from 07N to 15N along 95W-96W is
moving west at 15 kt. This wave is enhancing the convection
associated with the monsoon trough from 07N to 15N between 95W
and 105W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 11N105W to 11N105W,
resumes west of Hurricane Fernanda from 11N135W to 09N140W.
Except as noted above, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is located within 120 to 180 nm either side of the
trough axis between 88W and 105W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the special features for information on Tropical
Storm Greg southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds will sweep over the Revillagigedo Islands north
of Tropical Storm Greg as it passes south of the region through
tonight.
A surface trough from the coast of southern California southward
to off the coast of the Baja California peninsula near 26N122W
will continue to block the advance of the subtropical ridge into
the region and maintain generally gentle to moderate winds off
the Baja California peninsula through Thursday. Seas will remain
5 to 7 ft in a mix of long period north and southwesterly swell.
Gentle southerly flow will persist in the Gulf of California,
except for moderate southerly flow over the northern Gulf.
Light to gentle variable winds will prevail across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through today, then fresh northerly gap winds will
once again pulse to around 20 kt at night. Winds may increase to
fresh to strong by the end of the week into the weekend.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh offshore winds will
pulse to fresh each night with nocturnal drainage through the
week, occasionally building max seas to 8 ft in a mix of east
swell and longer period southwest swell.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the
monsoon trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial southerly
swell and 6-7 ft seas will continue to propagate into the waters
reaching the coast of Central America through the day. Another
pulse of large southerly swell will move into the region today
and raise seas to 6-8 ft through Thu.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the special features section for information on
Hurricane Fernanda and Tropical Depression Eight-E.
Weak ridging is producing moderate to fresh north to northeast
winds north of 25N. The ridge will build modestly eastward
through mid-week, tightening the gradient north of Fernanda as
it moves west of 135W this morning, and produce fresh northeast
winds across much of the area north of 25N, helping build seas to
8-9 ft in mixed northerly and southerly swell.
$$
Christensen
73 Scott KF5JRV
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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